Key ball strangle battle: Halliburton s "atypical super giant" proposition and the mystery of the collapse of the Thunder in the final quarter

Haliburton: Reconstructing the "contradictory complex" defined by the super giant

When Haliburton faced Caruso's 2.3-meter long-distance three-pointer in the first 5 minutes of the final game, rewriting the score to 101-98, Conseco's decibel peak exceeded 120 - this shooting perfectly interprets its "ice and fire poles" characteristics:

Historical organizational talent: playoff assist rate 4 1.2% of the league is the first, G3 made 11 assists and converted 7 of them into three-pointers (accounting for 63.6%);

Score explosive power defects: Average of 18.3 points in the series, and the assisted power of sports games reached 68%, setting a new high in the finals point guard in the past decade;

Key ball, big heart and free throw desert coexist: In the first finals, the first three games in his career, he averaged 0 free throws, but scored the most 4 points in the playoffs, and the last two minutes of the key three-pointer.

ESPN tactical board analyst Kevin Pelton pointed out: "Halliburton is subverting the traditional point guard evaluation system - his true plus-negative value (RPM) is as high as +8.7, but his usage rate (USG%) is only 22.1%, comparable to a role player." This "high-impact, low-ball-holding" model is just like Tony Parker of the Spurs in 2014, using Off-Ball Gravity to build an offensive ecosystem for the Pacers.

💥Thunder's collapse in the final quarter: From the defensive iron army to the "key ball black hole"

The Thunder G3 was hit by a 32-16 attack wave in the final quarter, a triple structural crisis was exposed:

The defensive system collapsed. The regular season defensive efficiency was 108.9. The defense efficiency dropped sharply to 129.3 in the last quarter; the Pacers hit the 5-minute shooting percentage in the last quarter, of which the pick-and-roll down (PnR Roll Man) scored 47%, directly pointing to the fact that Holmegren replaced the defense shortcut; Dort G3 missed the defense Matherin cut three times, allowing the latter to drill through the ribs with an efficiency of 1.62 points/round.

Star hard solution failed

Alexander made 4 points and 6 mistakes in the final quarter. He only scored 0.71 points per round when facing double-teaming, far lower than the 0.98 points in the regular season. What's even more fatal is his hesitation at the ball: G3 was cut off by McConnell twice in the last 4 minutes, replicating the nightmare of the 2023 first round against the Timberwolves G5.

Psychological Curse Loop Homgren lost both free throws, continuing his free throw shooting percentage in the last two minutes of the playoffs (84.1% in the regular season); the team's turnover rate in the last quarter of G1-G3 was 23.7%, up 11.2 percentage points from the regular season.

legendary Charles Barkley commented sharply: "The Thunder are like an accountant who plays with a calculator - the data is beautiful, but the hands are trembling when they are real!"

🔥 Pacers' winner: Matherin's "substitute nuclear bomb" and Carlisle's rotation magic

Matherin's phenomenal explosion G3 scored 27 points with a real hit rate of 75%, of which the conversion offense (Transition) scored 58%, perfectly using the Thunder to retreat and defend loopholes; its counterpart Dolter G3 plus or minus value -19, setting a new low in the career playoffs.

The physical strength strangle of 10 people rotation

Carlisle G3 uses the "five up and five down" speed change tactic: the second team led by McConnell + Jackson, hit a 15-4 shock wave in the early stage of the final quarter; the Thunder's main force lost 11 points during the rest period, and the scene of Alexander holding his knee and gasping at the end of the third quarter exposed the physical crisis.

"Asymmetric Offense" cracks the Thunder's defense line against Drop Coverage, and the Pacers designed Exum Screen: Turner brought a fake screen, Halliburton took the opportunity to make a three-pointer; using the Thunder's weak side to shrink, continuously launching the Corner Rip tactic, and G3's three-pointer with 7 of 10 three-pointers.

📉Historical Law Warning: The Thunder Redemption Window behind the 80% probability

Since the 2-3-2 competition system was adopted in the 1985 finals, the probability of the teams that won the G3 final victory has reached 79.6%. But the Thunder still has the key to turn the table:

Activate Chet's pick-and-roll external bullets: As a pick-and-roll man (PnR Man), it only scored 0.89 points per round in the finals, down from 1.12 points in the regular season;

develop Wallace's weak side assault: G3's breakthrough pass creates 6 open opportunities, and teammates only hit 1 goal;

reshape Alexander's decision-making ability: reduce high-level stops, learn from Doncic's "Delay PnR" to crack double-teams.

🏆Ultimate Proposition: Team Basketball's Trial on Talent First, Pacers are using 24.3 assists/game + 62.7% assists to replicate the team philosophy of the Spurs in 2014; and the Thunder's stubbornness in the league's 18.7 singles in the final quarter is just like James' Cavaliers dilemma in 2007.

As Popovich's famous saying: "When tactics fail, the star singles are painkillers; when tactics succeed, it is poison." When the final whistle of the G4 sounds, the answer may be revealed: Is this the ceremony for Halliburton to crown the "atypical super giant", or the Nirvana of the Thunder Youth Army breaking through the inner demons?

Data Deep Mirror: If the Thunder wins the championship, SGA will become the first FMVP after Jordan to average 30+5+5 in the finals but no 75 teammates; if the Pacers reach the top, Halliburton will be the first person to win the "180 Club (50-40-90%)" point guard champion. #The Finals Game Theory #Key Basketball Gene #Team Basketball Judgment Day