[Hongyu Team Actuary Analyst] [Yin Enhui] Professional Football Score 5-year Score Forecast!

[Hongyu Team Actuarial Analysis] Yin Eun-hye! Strength revenue 2000W Hongyu team professional football score 5-year score prediction

Football match analysis is a systematic and multi-dimensional task that needs to be entered from multiple dimensions such as team fundamentals, tactical execution, and data performance. The following is a relatively comprehensive analysis framework, combining actual combat scenarios and professional perspectives to explain:

1. Pre-match analysis: fundamentals and expected positioning

1. Team background and status

Recent results: Statistics of the winning, losing, draws and draws, goals/conflict data in the last 5-10 games, and pay attention to the trend of winning streaks/losses (such as "the team has won all the last 3 league games and has lost zero").

Home and away performance: home win rate, away pressure resistance (example: "A team has 7 wins and 2 draws at home this season, and only 1 away game").

Event positioning: pressure to compete for the championship in the league / relegation, whether you need to do your best in the cup (such as "the second round is backward and the rotation lineup needs to be reversed" or "there has been advanced to qualify for the rotation lineup").

2. Historical confrontation and psychological factors

confrontation record: the winning and losing relationship and goal distribution in the last 5 matches (such as "the team won 2-1 against a team in the last 3 matches").

Key campaign impact: Whether there is a "nemesis" team (example: "A team has only won 1 victory against its old rival in the past 10 years"), or psychological advantage (such as "double opponent last season").

3. Lineup and injury status

Core player status: main forward's goal efficiency, midfield core assist data, goalkeeper save success rate.

Injuries/Suspension impact: Absent from key positions (such as "the main central defender is suspended, and the defense line may be full of loopholes"), and the strength of substitutes is not as good as that.

2. Tactical analysis: formation and offensive logic

1. Formation and tactical framework

Regular formation: 4-3-3 (focus on wing breakthroughs), 5-4-1 (defensive counterattack), 3-5-2 (midfield strangle), etc., analyze the focus of formation on offense and defense.

Tactical core:

Offensive end: Whether it depends on crosses from the wing (such as "70% of a team's offense comes from the right"), infiltration from the middle or set pieces (example: "High center forwards average 5 successful top-scoring games").

Defensive end: high-pressing intensity (number of steals per game), low-level defensive formation compactness (the opponent's mid-breakthrough success rate).

2. Key matchups and weak links

wing matchup: Whether the winger speed of a certain team suppresses the opponent's fullback (such as "the winger has completed 20 successful passes this season").

Midfield control: midfielder pass success rate and interception data (example: "The midfielder averages 4 steals per game, which is a barrier to the defense line").

Offensive and Defensive Conversion: The efficiency of the goalkeeper's long pass is only 30%, which is easy to be counterattacked").

3. Quantitative data analysis: objective indicators support

1. Basic data

ball possession rate, number of shots (positive shots), number of corner kicks, number of fouls, etc. (Example: "A team averages 65% of the ball possession, but the positive shot rate is only 20%").

The number of key passes, straight passes, and out-of-the-shot successes reflect offensive creativity.

2. Advanced data

Expected goals (xG): Calculate the scoring probability by shooting position, angle, etc. (such as "a team's xG is 2.5 in this game, and 1 actual goal is scored, which is relatively inefficient").

Defensive position data: Average to regain the ball rights area (such as "60% in the midfield area, indicating that high-level pressing is effective").

Running distance: the average running distance of the team, the number of sprints of key players (example: "The average running of midfielders is 12 kilometers per game, with a large coverage area").

4. Game dynamic analysis: real-time variables and turning points

1. On-the-spot adjustment of the timing and effect of substitutions (such as "changing the high center forward in the 60th minute, heading the ball in 5 minutes").

Tactical formation change: change to three forwards when lagging behind, shrink to five defenders when leading, etc.

2. Occasional factors

The influence of red and yellow cards: The key player is sent off and leads to an imbalance in the formation (such as "the main midfielder is yellow and the midfield is out of control").

Referee scale: The impact of penalty and offside disputes on the game trend.

5. Psychological and Fighting Intention Analysis

Fighting Intention Intensity: Life and Death Battle of the Relegation Team, the key battle of the Championship Team vs irrelevant friendly matches.

Pressure response: The impact of home fan atmosphere on players' mentality (such as "the fan booing caused more players' mistakes when falling behind at home").

6. Comprehensive prediction and score logic

1. Derivation of winning probability

combined with the above analysis, give the winning/draw/loss probability (example: "The main winning probability is 50%, the draw is 30%, and the away win is 20%").

emphasizes the key variable: "If the main striker of a certain team returns, the probability of winning will increase to 60%.

2. Score simulation

Based on offense and defense efficiency and historical confrontation data: "A team averages 2 goals per game, and the opponent loses 1.5 goals per game. Combined with home court advantages, the prediction is 2-1 or 3-1."

7. Case application: Taking "Manchester City VS Liverpool" as an example

Pre-match analysis: Manchester City has 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 games, Liverpool has 2 draws and 1 loss in the last 3 games; Manchester City has dominated in the last 5 matches in history, 3 wins and 2 draws.

Tactical Analysis: Manchester City 4-3-3 focuses on midfield pass control, Liverpool 4-2-3-1 relies on the winger to counterattack, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether Manchester City fullbacks can limit Salah.

Data support: Manchester City averages 68% of the ball, Liverpool averages 12 counterattacks per game, the key is to look at the efficiency of offense and defense conversion.

Score prediction: Combined with the defensive stability of both sides, predict 2-1 or 1-1.

Summary: Analyzing core logic

Football game analysis must follow the principle of "data as the basis, tactics as the basis, variables as the key" - use data to verify appearance, use tactics to disassemble the essence, and use variables to predict trends. Novice can start with basic data and gradually combine formation and on-site factors to form a systematic analytical thinking.