The prospects for the Bucks are bleak, and trading letters may be the only way out

The Bucks have no way to retreat and the situation is very serious.

Now, the only question worth paying attention to is whether the Bucks will trade letters (Giannis Antetokounmpo) and when the trade will happen. Damian Lillard's Achilles tendon injury became the last straw that crushed the Bucks. This "giant wheel" once helmed by Antetokounmpo has long been riddled with holes, and Lillard's injury has completely sunk.

Let's take a look at Lillard's situation first. His injury was not only a tragedy, but also a few ironies: First of all, it was exactly the same as his experience at the Portland Trail Blazers in 2015. At that time, teammate Wesley Matthews was reimbursed for the season in March due to an Achilles tendon injury, and then the 51-win team of the season quickly collapsed and was eliminated by the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round. After the season, All-Star forward Lamarcus Aldridge left the team as a free agent, and the Trail Blazers rebuilt from the ruins and eventually reached the Western Conference Finals in 2019.

Secondly, Lillard's injury may have allowed the Bucks to replicate everything he experienced in Portland - a hopeless lineup can only wait for the star to make a deal request, delaying the doomed ending.

For the Bucks, the possibility of competing for the championship is slim, and Lillard's injury makes all this hopeless. The team has no excellent young players and no draft assets. Every year, they have to compete with the second luxury tax line under the league's new regulations, resulting in the continuous loss of supporting roles' combat power. The two Bucks' best players outside the letters - Brooke Lopez and Bobby Portis - will both be free agents. Among the two highest-paid players in the team, one may miss next season due to injury and return in the 2026-27 season, Lillard, who is 36 years old, and the other is Kyle Kuzma, who has made no contribution to the playoffs.

This season, Letters still performs among the top three players in the league, but the Bucks he led are only fifth in the Eastern Conference and were crushed by their opponents in the first round of the playoffs before Lillard was injured. Even with letters and Lillard on the court at the same time, the Bucks had a net score of only +4.7, which was comparable to the performances of the Knicks, Grizzlies, Rockets and Timberwolves in the season. The Bucks' best team can't enter the championship group either.

Now all eyes are focused on the letters, just as people are watching Lillard, who is increasingly desperate in Portland during 2022-2023. As the Bucks' greatest player of the century, the letters are undoubtedly unique, but at the age of 30, he may be dragged down by a mediocre lineup in the next few years.

Lillard's high contracts ($54.1 million and $58.5 million) will squeeze a lot of salary space in the next two seasons. Even if the letters are excellent, and if they are included in the relatively weak competitive environment in the East, the best result is to drag the Bucks to get the sixth seed and suffer another defeat in the first round.

After 2027, Lillard's contract expires and the Bucks' salary space will be alleviated, but the team still lacks draft picks and player training system. By then, the 32-year-old letter will become a free agent (if he doesn't renew his contract).

Apparently, the Bucks have short-term motivation to keep the letters at all costs and keep him optimistic. This is understandable: Milwaukee is not New York or Los Angeles, and it is difficult for the Bucks to get players like the letters, so it is extremely normal to extend his stay as long as possible.

(It is worth mentioning that despite being in a small market, the Bucks have bravely taken on high luxury taxes to seize Antetokounmpo's peak in recent years and tried various operations. Although not all decisions have been successful, their efforts are obvious to all. In contrast, the Denver Nuggets' conservative attitude is regrettable.)

A bold idea is to trade Lillard to Phoenix for Bradley Bill, at least to make the high salary paid in return for next season. Another option is to take out the remaining 2031 or 2032 first-round picks and try to strengthen the roster by trading Kuzma or converting Pat Connaughton's $9.5 million salary into a starting player.

However, recalling Lillard's last two years in Portland, the Blazers' efforts to delay reconstruction - such as Jerami Grant's huge contract, protected first-round picks for Larry Nance II, and other short-sighted wins - ended up with only a bleak record of 27 wins and 33 wins, until Lillard made a trade request. These operations still limit the pace of the pioneers.

Similar lessons also occur on the grizzly bears. In the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons, the Grizzlies stubbornly fantasized about staying competitive, although their actual performance was already poor. Although Marc Gasol and Mike Conley are not as good as letters or Lillard, there is no difference in the lessons of overly nostalgic about the stars and missing the opportunity to rebuild. Fortunately, the Grizzlies have increased their player value through trades and selected Jaren Jackson II in 2018 due to an unexpected downturn.

When it's over, it's meaningless to struggle. This is the reality of the NBA. Therefore, the core problem facing the Bucks is that whether the letter makes a trade request or not, trading him and completely rebuilding may be the best choice!

Antetokounmpo watches the final moments of the fourth game against the Pacers on Sunday.

If the Bucks still have their own draft pick, the answer is obviously "deal". But due to some previous deals, the Bucks' draft assets are extremely scarce, and they will not be able to fight for high picks by playing badly for at least the next five years, which makes the situation complicated.

The Nets took back their draft picks by trading Mikal Bridges in June 2024, which is a textbook operation, although it paid a high price to Houston for this. This allowed them to play with all their strength. If the Bucks want to adopt a similar strategy, they need to trade with the Pelicans to get back the 2026 draft picks, and exchange them with the top four picks in the first round of 2027 (the 5th to 30th picks have been sent to Atlanta).

Even so, this can only win two high picks for the Bucks, while waiting for the cap space to be cleared. But the deal is limited to the Pelicans, and New Orleans has limited appeal to players. This may need to be an appendix to the letter trade, such as the Bucks obtain a draft pick by trading letters, and then exchange some draft picks for their own draft picks with the Pelicans.

So, who can trade letters get? Another irony about Lillard's injury is that it could force the Bucks to accept Miami's deal schemes, such as the combination of Taylor Sheero, Jamie Hux and Duncan Robinson. The Heat are always potential next players, but they lack enough draft picks (the first-round picks that can be traded at this year's draft night include the 20th pick from the Warriors, as well as unprotected first-round picks in 2030 and 2032) or attractive young players, which are difficult to gain an advantage in such a big deal.

Instead, the Bucks should strive to enter the lottery zone through trades in June this year and start the reconstruction immediately.

The most obvious target is the Rockets. The Rockets can provide "little letters" Amen Thompson, and an attractive draft pick: a lottery draw from the Suns in 2025, an unprotected first-round pick for the Suns in 2027 and 2029 (the latter is the better of the Suns or the Mavericks), plus a balanced asset that matches the letter's $54.6 million salary.

Another candidate is the Nets. The Nets have enough salary space to absorb other contracts from the Bucks (may not include Lillard, but Connaughton and Kuzma may do it). While the Nets can’t offer potential new stars like Thompson, they have four first-round picks in 2025 (expected to be 6, 19, 26, 27 picks), the Suns’ unprotected swap rights in 2028, three unprotected future first-round picks from the Knicks, and all their own future draft picks. Combining salary cuts and draft capital, this is a rare deal package, especially given the luxury tax pressure the Bucks face in recent years.

Unless the Thunder decide to join the competition (I am skeptical), it will be difficult for other teams to compete with the Rockets and Nets in draft capital.

In addition, the Spurs and the Raptors are also potential trade counterparts. Bucks fans should not expect to trade letters for Victor Vinbanyama, but Stephen Castle may do it. The Spurs also have two lotto picks in 2025 (own and from the Hawks), unprotected first-round picks from the Hawks in 2027, multiple swap rights, and their own draft picks in 2029 and 2031. Kelden Johnson and Harrison Barnes can be used as salary balances. If letters are willing to go to non-popular markets, the Spurs' attractiveness (the combination of Wenban Yama + Antetokounmpo) and trading assets are very competitive.

Finally there are the Toronto Raptors, Raptors CEO Marseille Ujeri is rumored to have been planning to get letters for years. The trading plan may be simple: the Raptors' 2025 lottery draw plus Scotty Barnes, and then add other draft picks according to the Bucks' needs (the Raptors have all future first-round picks).

The four teams are popular candidates, but if the Bucks release the letter trade news, all 29 teams will call. Even if there is no future draft pick. The Bucks are in such a bad situation, and the only logical choice is to start trading negotiations with letters and rebuild them with the assets they have earned.

The emotional appeal of continuing to fight alongside the letters is very strong, and I can know from experience that turning a team from "winning in the present" to completely rebuilding is like turning around a giant ship.

But from the big picture, Lillard's injury sends a clear signal: it's all over. As Lillard’s experience in Portland shows, rather than procrastinating the inevitable ending, tearing off the fig leaf immediately is usually a better choice.