Three consecutive signs, the Thunder became the favorite to win the NBA! The management has accurate calculations, and maybe it can really establish a dynasty
1:24am, 29 September 2025Basketball
The new NBA season is getting closer and closer. This summer, the NBA east and west divisions have tended to have two extremes. The giant Pacers and Celtics in the East have voluntarily withdrawn from the championship due to serious injury to the core and reduce their salary to accumulate strength. The only competitive Knicks and the Cavaliers in the East are left. In the West, since the Thunder won the championship last season, many young teams seem to have seen hope, because the Thunder has been step by step from the bad Tanks in the past four years. Therefore, the Rockets accelerated the process of trading and obtained Durant, and the Nuggets have also continuously improved the depth of the lineup. Including the Clippers, they also plan to make a living before Leonard's contract expires, and work harder to strengthen Bill + Paul + Collins + Daluo and others.
Judging from the major US media and official strength lists, the biggest favorite to win the championship in the new season is still the Thunder. The Thunder played a very perfect season last season, with 68 wins and 14 losses in the regular season, and their net efficiency has set a new record in NBA history. In the playoffs, there are two rounds of the really difficult series, playing the Nuggets to tiebreak and the Pacers to tiebreak in the finals. In fact, the Thunder's advantages and shortcomings are obvious. The advantages are the depth of the lineup, the defense of all members, Alexander's personal scoring ability, and the efficiency of the team's offensive and defensive conversion; the disadvantage is that the overall height of the forward line is not enough, and Alexander does not really have the ability to connect and drive the entire team, especially in the finals, the limelight seemed to be snatched away by Jewe. In the offseason, the Thunder management, like the Celtics last summer, won the championship and won the title of hero, giving Alexander a four-year, 285 million super maximum salary, and Homgren's 5-year, 239 million maximum salary contract. Jewish also received a five-year, 287 million super maximum salary. Judging from the top 100 stars in the league in the new season given by ESPN, the Thunder, like the Nuggets, are both selected by 6 players, Alexander ranked 2nd, Jewish ranked 11th, Homgren ranked 24th, Caruso ranked 53rd, Harten ranked 56th, and Dortmund ranked 64th. They are the strongest in the league in terms of quality and quantity. Of course, the main reason for the outside world's poor reputation for the Thunder is that Alexander always gets some false free throws in the playoffs, such as the Western Conference Finals, the Pacers in the Finals, and the key G4 is the same.
From the surface, the Thunder will face salary explosion in the future, and the Thunder will also face more encirclements and suppression of Western powers in the new season. But there are several data worth pondering. First, US media StatMuse statistics show that in the Thunder team last season, 8 players' real victory contribution value was better than that of more than 90% of the players in the same position. Since the statistics were obtained, it is the first in history! In addition to the above 6 people, there are Wallace and Kenway. Secondly, in the next seven years, the Thunder will have 13 first-round picks (10 that can be traded) and 17 second-round picks. They also hold the future of teams including the Heat, 76ers, Nuggets, Clippers and other teams. Finally, Alexander's salary in the next two years will only be 38.33 million + 40.8 million US dollars respectively, which is not high in the current league. The starting salary of 63.71 million will start from the 27-28 season.
The entire Thunder team is seriously underestimated! Let’s talk about two news first. The Thunder officially announced that they had signed three young players, Austin + Gottman + Young Brad. The team’s roster has reached 20, but the total salary is only 190 million. If you do it a little, you don’t have to pay luxury tax. This also announced that the team closed the door to Westbrook. At the same time, the Thunder's entire basketball operation department has 88 employees. To compare, the Lakers only have 52 people and the Knicks only have 90 people. In order to establish a dynasty, the Thunder management has actually calculated it perfectly. For example, in the 23-24 season, the Thunder's net profit was about US$74 million. Last season, the US media estimated that the Thunder's net profit would reach about 150 million. They have risen in the past three years and have not paid luxury tax, but they are not afraid of paying luxury tax! In the 18-19 season, they paid a luxury tax of 61 million yuan in a single season. But there is no need for the current stage! Alexander's cheap contract helped pave the way for the big contract of Homgren + Jewe. Even if the maximum salary contract was opened after the 26-27 season, the Thunder could still choose to deal with the player option of Harten + Dortmund with nearly $50 million. At the same time, the first round picks they have in hand can be continuously cashed in. For example, use Caruso to replace Dortmund positions, package high-quality chips for cheaper combat power, etc. Secondly, the second rich line in the new season is 207.8 million, the expected 222 million in the 26-27 season, and the expected 234 million in the 27-28 season. When it really comes to that stage, the three core members of the Thunder will receive a super maximum salary, but the upper limit of the Thunder salary is also rising simultaneously.
Thunder only needs to control the team's salary to the luxury tax line of 11 million and pay the minimum amount to retain the entire lineup framework! In the past few years, from the Bucks to the Warriors, to the Nuggets and Celtics, it seems that it has become the norm after winning the championship, but the Thunder does not have this kind of worry. The number of picks reserves, Alexander's contract cost-effectiveness, including the subsequent growth limit of young people, Topic last year and Sauber, who ranked 15th this year, the Thunder are constantly cultivating new Jewish, new Alexander, and new Homgren. It can be foreseen that in the next three years, the Thunder will not have any concerns about salary. With the basic conditions to maintain this framework, perhaps the Thunder can really establish a new NBA dynasty.
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