Saturday 030 Premier League [Nottingham Forest VS Sunderland] Football Professional Analysis "Hong Xiaoyu" Maintains stability and is on the right/Fighting in the middle

Nottingham Forest 1-2 Sunderland

Core analysis

1. Comparison of league situation and fighting intention

Nottingham Forest: No. 15, 5 points (1 win, 2 draw, 2 losses), scored 4 goals and conceded 8 goals, struggling on the edge of the relegation zone

Sunderland: No. 7, 8 points (2 win, 2 draw, 1 loss), scored 6 goals and conceded 5 goals, and the newly promoted team performed amazingly

Fighting intention assessment: Nottingham Forest urgently needs to grab points at home to get out of the relegation zone; Sunderland strives to consolidate its European seat away, and both sides are strong in fighting spirit

2. Comparison of home and away performance and status

Comparison of Nottingham Forest (Home) Sunderland (Away) Advantages have recorded 1 win, 4 draws, 5 losses in the last 10 games, 6 goals conceded 10 goals, 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses in the last 10 games, 10 goals conceded 14 goals Sunderland's offensive efficiency is 0.6 goals per game at home, 17th lowest away games, 1.0 goals per game at the league, 11th lowest Sunderland's defensive performance is 1.0 goals per game at home, 10th best away games, 1.4 goals per game at the league, 12th worst Nottingham Forest has recently done 2 wins, 2 draws, 10th last round, Betis has drawn 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in the last 5 games, 1-1 in the last round, 2-2 draws, Betis has drawn 2 wins, 2 draws, 1-2 in the last round, 1-1 in the last round, 2-2 in Betis has drawn 5 games, 2-2 in the last round, 1-1 in the last round, 2-1 in the last round, Betis has drawn 2 wins, 2 draws, 2-2 in the last 5 games, 1-2 in the last round, 1-1 in the last round Drawing Villa is tied with home and away characteristics. Home defense is good, but the attack power is seriously insufficient, but the away offensive ability is strong, but the defense has loopholes. Each has its own strengths

3. Historical confrontations and psychological advantages

In the last 8 confrontations, Nottingham Forest has 1 win, 2 draws, 5 losses at home, scored 7 goals and conceded 14 goals, and the home disadvantage is obvious

Latest confrontation (February 2, 2025): Nottingham Forest 1-2 Sunderland (English Championship)

Key data: Sunderland has won 3 games against Nottingham Forest in the last 5 away games, and its psychological advantages are obvious

Psychological assessment: Sunderland has a clear psychological advantage against Nottingham Forest away games, Nottingham Forest has a great pressure at home

4. Tactical characteristics and style collision

Nottingham Forest Tactics: 4-3-3 formation, transition from defensive counterattack to high-pressure offense, pain period

Tactical core: high-pressing + quick conversion + wide breakthrough

Home tactics: more active high-pressing, front-line pressure, ball-handling rate increased to 55%

Main weaknesses: insufficient running-in during the tactical transformation period, 70% of the offense is concentrated on the left, and weak defense on the right

Setball Tactics: 60% of the goals come from set pieces, but the defensive end also concedes 3 goals due to set pieces (3rd most in the league)

Sunderland Tactics: 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 formation, flexible and changeable French tactical system

Tactical core: ball control and positional battle + Efficient counterattack

away tactics: pay more attention to defensive stability and reduce ball possession (the away ball possession rate has dropped to 48%)

Main advantages: 52.54% of the battle success rate (5th in the Premier League), players are active in fighting without the ball

Wing characteristics: Right winger Adinggra (averages 2.8 passes per game) Focus on inward shots, and has scored 2 goals in the last 3 games

Tactical collision: Nottingham Forest's high-pressure pressing at home vs Sunderland's away defensive counterattack; Forest's wing breaks through vs Sunderland's inward shot

5. Core players and injuries

Nottingham Forest core:

Elanga (wind): The team's offensive core, speed and breakthrough ability are left sharp knives

Gibbs-White (Midfield): The set-piece penalty is the key figure in the team's scoring

Odoi (Winner): New aid, strong breakthrough ability, but it will take time to run-in with the team

Sunderland core:

Jack Clark (Winner): Team "Observation Engine ", has contributed 3 goals and 2 assists this season

Corey Evans (Midfield): Tactical brain, averaging 2.1 key passes per game, passing success rate of 83%

Roberts (Forward): All-round forward, able to play as a center, and play at the No. 10 position or winger

Injury:

Nottingham Forest: Ola Ener (back, severe hamstring injury, missing to 12 Month), Nicholas Dominguez (midfielder, knee injury), Douglas Louis (midfielder, hamstring injury), Zinchenko (back, suspension)

Sunderland: Renildo (back, suspension), Habib Diyala (midfielder, missing to December), Roman Mondel (forward, hamstring injury)

Impact assessment: Nottingham Forest is more serious injury and the defense is damaged; although Sunderland is short of players, the core players are basically healthy

6. Gambling data and professional forecast

Asian handicap: Nottingham Forest lets 0.25 The ball, the water level is moderate, the market is slightly optimistic about the home team

European compensation data: Nottingham Forest wins 2.20-2.30, draws 3.15-3.40, Sunderland wins 2.90-3.10

Professional consensus: Most analytical institutions predict small score games, draws or Nottingham Forest 1 goal small win

Model prediction: Nottingham Forest wins 38.7%, Sunderland wins 31.2%, draws probability 30.1%

Total goal expectation: 2 goals, the two teams have 7 times in the last 10 games, and the total number of goals is ≤2

Conclusion

Comprehensive analysis shows that Sunderland will defeat Nottingham Forest 2-1 away game. The main basis is as follows:

Historical confrontations and psychological advantages: Sunderland has won 3 games against Nottingham Forest in the last 5 away games, and has obvious psychological advantages away games. Nottingham Forest’s home game pressure is high

Tactical transformation and injury impact: Nottingham Forest is in a period of tactical transformation pain, with many core players injured and severe damage to the defense line; although Sunderland has a shortage of players, the core players are basically healthy, and their overall strength is less damaged

Away ability and offensive efficiency: Sunderland’s away offensive efficiency (1.0 goals per game) is higher than Nottingham Forest’s home game (0.6 goals per game), and the offensive end is more threatening

Tactical characteristics and style incompatible: Nottingham Forest 70% The offense is concentrated on the left, and it happened to encounter the strong area of ​​Sunderland's right winger Adinggra's inward shot. The tactical restraint is formed

The game will present a pattern of Nottingham Forest's pressure at home and Sunderland's defensive counterattack. Nottingham Forest is expected to take advantage of home court and set piece tactics, with Gibbs White scoring a goal to take the lead. Sunderland relied on Clark and Adinggra's personal abilities to equalize the score, and Adinggra completed the final victory. In the end, Sunderland won 2-1 away.

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-2 Sunderland