If the Pacers and Thunder enter the finals this year, the Thunder will likely win the championship

On May 28, in the history of the NBA, the finals showdowns are often full of drama and uncertainty. If the Indiana Pacers meet the Oklahoma City Thunder on the 2025 finals stage, judging from the existing data and team performance, the Thunder does have a clear advantage. This is not only reflected in the regular season confrontation records, but also in multiple factors such as the team's overall strength, tactical system and home court advantages.

First of all, from the direct dialogue in the regular season, the Thunder formed a suppression on the Pacers. In the two matches in the 2024-2025 season, the Thunder won by double-digit points. In one of the games, the Thunder established a lead early with Shea Gilgers-Alexander's explosive performance (35 points and 7 assists) and Chet Homgren's defensive dominance (5 blocks). In another match, the depth of the Thunder's bench became the key, with Isaiah Joe and Jaylen Williams jointly contributing 40 points, completely breaking through the Pacers' second team. This all-round suppression has allowed the Thunder to establish a huge advantage on the psychological level - the playoffs are not only a competition of skills and tactics, but also a competition of confidence and momentum.

Analysis of the team lineup, the Thunder's configuration is more in line with the modern basketball blueprint for winning the championship. Their core framework is young and balanced: Alexander is already the league's top ball holder, with an average of 30.1 points per game and a true shooting percentage of 58%, which is enough to tear any defensive system; as a unicorn center with an offense and defense, Homgren can not only open up space and shoot three-pointers, but also protect the basket (2.8 blocks per game); plus all-around forward Jaylen Williams and sharpshooter Isaiah Joe, the Thunder's offensive efficiency has long been in the top three in the league. In contrast, although Thales Halliburton's pass magic (11.2 assists per game) and Miles Turner's space-type fifth position characteristics are extremely threatening, the team's defensive efficiency is only 18th in the league, and it may be difficult to resist the Thunder's multiple points.

Home advantage often becomes the decisive variable in a series of seven games and four wins. The Thunders achieved the second record in the Western Conference with 57 wins and 25 losses this season, winning 6 more games than the Pacers, which means the Finals will adopt a 2-2-1-1-1 game system, and the Thunder have the privilege of one more home game. Data shows that the Thunder's winning rate in Paycom Center Stadium this season is as high as 78%, with the three-point shooting percentage being 3.2 percentage points higher than the away game. When the series enters the critical battle of Tianwang Mountain or tiebreak, the decibels created by nearly 20,000 fans wearing blue T-shirts are enough to affect the opponent's free throw rhythm and the referee's penalty scale. The Pacers' record is only 5 wins and 8 losses when facing teams with a winning rate of more than 60% away this season, and this weakness in "strong dialogue" may become a fatal injury.

From the perspective of tactical style, the Thunder's infinite defense replacement system just restrains the Pacers' offensive lifeline. The Pacers average pick-and-roll balls per game, scoring first in the league, but the Thunder have big men like Homgren who can defend beyond the three-point line, as well as Alexander and Dort, who have strong screening capabilities, who can squeeze through the outside gate. What's even more fatal is that the Thunder averaged 21.4 points per game (second in the league), while the Pacers averaged 14.3 turnovers per game, ranking fifth in the league - this "self-destruction" attribute will be infinitely magnified on the stage of high-pressure defense. In contrast, the Thunder's offense averaged 27.1 assists per game and only 12.8 turnovers. This efficient and stable style of play is even more popular in the playoffs.

Of course, basketball games are never simple data superposition. If the Pacers want to create miracles, they must solve three major issues: first, limit Alexander's breakthrough pass, and may need to use the wheel defense of Aaron Nesmith and Ben Shepard; second, they need to activate Obi Topin's misplaced singles ability and use his athletic ability to impact Homegren; the most important thing is to improve the stability of three-pointers. Their three-point shooting percentage in the regular season against the Thunder was only 31%, far lower than the season's average of 37%. If Coach Carlisle can design a targeted "empty Gide" strategy, it may change the Thunder's offensive space.

Judging from historical experience, there are many cases of young teams paying tuition fees in the finals. But what makes the Thunder special is that they have locker room leaders like veteran Hayward and Biyongbo, and their core lineup has been tempered by last season's Western Conference semi-finals. In contrast, the psychological burden of the Pacers entering the finals for the first time since 2000 may become an unbearable burden. When the game enters the final five minutes of the game, the Thunder's 64% winning rate (third in the league) will give them an extra bonus.

Taking all variables into consideration, the Thunder has about 68% chance of resolving the battle in six games. The most likely script is: the Thunder took a 2-0 lead with their home power in the first two games, and the Pacers returned to the Banker Life Stadium to win a game, but the G4 Alexander burst out and won 40+ and took away the victory. While the tenacious Pacers can defend their home court again in G5, the Thunder will lift the O'Brien Cup in the G6's O'City Carnival. Homegren won the FMVP with his average of 20+10+3 blocks per game, while Halliburton's average of 25+12 assists per game became a tragic footnote - this is not only a compliment to talent, but also a perfect interpretation of team basketball.