Europa Qualification Focus: Belgrade Guerrilla VS AEK Larnaca

At 3 a.m. on July 18, the second leg of the Europa qualifiers will usher in a focus showdown, with Belgrade guerrillas sitting at home Bedison Stadium to face AEK Larnaca. In the first leg, AEK Larnaca defeated Belgrade guerrilla 1-0 at home, gaining the lead in advance. This time, Belgrade guerrilla battles back and forth to reverse and advance, and AEK Larnaca is also eager to defend its advantage. Both teams will do their best to qualify for the Europa League.

1. Team History and Lecture

(I) Belgrade Guerrillas

Belgrade Guerrillas Football Club was established on October 4, 1945. As a traditional giant in Serbian football, its history runs through the top leagues of Yugoslavia and Serbian football. In domestic competitions, the club won 27 league championships, including many championships during the Yugoslav League One period. After Yugoslavia disintegrated, it also topped the Serbian and Montenegro League Ones and the Serbian Super League many times. At the same time, it also won 6 Yugoslavia Cups, 3 Serbian and Montenegro Cups and 7 Serbian Cups, and 1 Yugoslavia Super Cup and Central European Cup championship. In the European arena, the team reached the UEFA Champions League final for the first time in 1966, becoming the first Yugoslav, Balkans and even Eastern European team to enter the finals of the important UEFA event. Although it eventually lost to Real Madrid, this history is still a witness to the team's glory.

(II)AEK Larnaca

AEK Larnaca Football Club was established in 1994 and was formed by the merger of two Larnaca clubs, EPA Larnaca and Pezoporikos. Although it was established relatively late, it has achieved remarkable results in the field of football in Cyprus, winning 2 Cyprus Cups, in 2004 and 2018. One of its biggest football achievements was a successful advancement in the 2011-2012 Europa League group stage and a second place finish in the league for three consecutive years.

2. Analysis of the current situation of the team

(I) Belgrade guerrillas

Recent record: Belgrade's guerrillas have been in a sluggish state recently, with only 2 wins and 4 losses in the last 6 games, and have suffered 4 consecutive losses, which has caused the team's morale to be frustrated. In the UEFA Cup qualifying warm-up match, they lost to CSKA Moscow and Dynamo Moscow with the same score of 1:3, exposing many problems. However, the team has strong home fighting ability, with outstanding record of 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss in the last 10 European games. When they return to their home court this time, they hope to turn the tide with the help of their home advantage.

Linecraft Status: The team experienced turmoil in the transfer window, with the main goalkeeper, the three major defenders and the No. 2 shooter leaving collectively, and the lineup strength was seriously damaged. The main central defender Milic was absent due to a leg injury in this game, and the forward core Zubairu Ibrahim (12 goals in 30 games last season) was unable to play due to an ankle fracture, which had a huge impact on the team's offense and defense ends. However, the offseason team also introduced 18-year-old talented center Kostic (900,000 euros) and 21-year-old attacker Petkovic, injecting fresh blood into the team, but it will take time to get started with the newcomer into the team.

Tactical Playing Style: Teams commonly use 4 - 2 - 3 - 1 formations, focusing on midfield control and wing attack. The midfield core Nathjo needs to bear important responsibilities on both offense and defense, and while organizing the offense, it also needs to strengthen defensive interception. Due to the absence of the forward core, the offensive end may rely more on substitute forward Petkovic, and wingers Lazovic and Jovanovic will use their speed to attack the opponent's side defense. However, on the defensive end, the absence of the main central defender has made the young central defender combination insufficient experience. The double midfielder Vukodic and Karabeliov need to strengthen the interception protection of the midfield. At the same time, in setting-piece defense, we must be vigilant against the high-altitude threat of the opponent's central defender Garcia.

(II) AEK Larnaca

Recent record: The team is in good shape overall, and in the recent three club friendly matches, he has won 1 win and 2 draws, and remains unbeaten. AEK Larnaca performed well in the Cyprus last season, with 16 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in 26 rounds, ranking third in the league with 54 points. However, the team has not won all three games in the past three games, with a record of 2 draws and 1 loss, and has suffered losses in all three league friendly matches, with nearly three goals conceded in a single game, and the problem of defense has begun to highlight.

Linear situation: The team's lineup is currently relatively complete, only midfielder Georges Naum needs to be on standby due to muscle problems, and the rest of the players are not injured or suspended. The team has many foreign players, and there is usually only one Cypriot player in the starting lineup. Although the players are older, they are rich in experience and can better deal with various situations in the game.

Tactical play: adopts 4-3-3 formation, focusing on wing assault and set pieces tactics. Winter Angelsky is in a very brave state, scoring 8 goals in the last 3 warm-up matches, which will pose a great threat to Belgrade's guerrilla left gate Milic. Another winger, Chakong, has excellent breakthrough and crossing skills. The two will continue to attack the opponent's wing, and find high center Kostic or midfielder Roden who is inserted in the back through the cross. Milicevic and Pons are responsible for cutting off the opponent's pass route and providing protection for the defense. The team has high scoring efficiency of set pieces, central defender Garcia has a header success rate of 75%, and full-back Robery is also quite threatening to get the point.

3. Review of the history of the confrontation

The two teams have confronted 3 times in history, and AEK Larnaca has 2 wins and 1 draw to gain the upper hand. In the 2022 Europa League group stage, AEK Larnaca played Belgrade guerrillas at home and away, achieving an unbeaten record of 1 win and 1 draw, with a total of 4-3 goals. Such a history of confrontation gives AEK Larnaca a certain psychological advantage, while Belgrade guerrillas are eager to rewrite the situation in this game.

4. Highlights and predictions of the game

The weak offensive vs. Defensive risks: Belgrade guerrillas have been weak in offense recently, and the absence of the forward core has a huge impact. They have only scored 1 goal per game in the last 3 games. Although AEK Larnaca's overall defensive performance is acceptable, the defense line has also been exposed in recent games, and has conceded 1.6 goals per game in the last five away games. In this game, whether Belgrade's guerrilla offense can break the deadlock and break the defense line of AEK Larnaca, and whether AEK Larnaca can stabilize its defense and resist the opponent's counterattack is a major highlight.

Can home advantage help reverse: Belgrade guerrillas have excellent home record, with 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss in their last 10 European games. The team returns to the familiar home court, and the enthusiastic cheers of fans will become their powerful driving force. In the case of a loss in the first leg, the team will be able to attack with all their might, striving to win a goal difference of two goals or a small victory with a clean sheet and a clean sheet of opponents to advance. AEK Larnaca has to face tremendous pressure on the away game. How to withstand the home team's attack and use counterattack to find opportunities is a problem they need to solve.

Tactical Game: The different tactical styles of the two teams will also collide in this game. Belgrade guerrilla midfield control and wing attack, with AEK Larnaca's wing assault and set piece tactics, which tactics can gain the upper hand in the game, is worth paying attention to. The tactical adjustments of coaches on both sides in on-site command and the players' ability to execute tactics will have an important impact on the results of the game.