[Five Major Leagues of Clay Egg] [Champions League] Eindhoven vs. Shengji United [Champions League] Benfica vs. Carabach [Champions League] Real Madrid vs. Marseille

004 [Champions League] Eindhoven vs. Shengji United

1. Fundamental analysis

1. Eindhoven's dominance in the Eredivisie

As a traditional Eredivisie, Eindhoven continued its strong performance this season: 4 wins and 1 loss in the first 5 rounds, leading the standings, scoring 19 goals in the last 6 games, and having offensive efficiency in the league. Its home advantage is particularly significant, with a home winning rate of 70% in the past 10 Champions Leagues, and has entered the Champions League knockout stage for three consecutive seasons, with far exceeding that of its opponents. However, there are hidden dangers in the defense line, and loopholes are easily exposed when facing high-intensity pressing.

2. The dark horse of Shengji United's Bijia was of 86.1 million euros, and remained unbeaten in the first 7 rounds of the league. The team is good at defensive counterattacks, and averages less than 1 goal per game, but the away winning rate of European games is only 30%. They are participating in the Champions League for the first time, and their psychological quality and on-the-spot adjustment ability are doubtful.

2. Tactical counterattack and key players

midfielder competition: Eindhoven's 4231 formation relies on midfield control (pass success rate of 82%), while Shengji United's 352 system needs to cut off the opponent's pass line through a defensive barrier.

Frontline matchup: Eindhoven's frontcourt trident (such as Gonzalo Langer) averages 0.5 goals per game, which will test the assisting ability of Shengji to unite with three defenders.

Injury impact: Eindhoven missed the main central defender Wermann, while Senge United lost the forward core Floruks, and the lineup depth was impacted.

3. Score prediction and basis

Comprehensive offensive and defensive data and home and away performance, Eindhoven is more likely to win 2-0 or 3-1:

Home suppression: 70% home winning rate and 19 goals recent offensive firepower, which can break through the joint defense line of Shengji.

The new army's experience is in short supply: Shengji has zero experience in the Champions League, lacks resistance to pressure on away games, and it is easy to collapse in physical fitness after 70 minutes.

Defensive counterattack efficiency: If Shengji jointly seizes the loophole in Eindhoven's defense line, he may score 1 goal, but it is difficult to reverse the situation.

Final prediction: Eindhoven 2-0/3-1 Shengji United

008 [Champions League] Benfica VS Karabach

1. Strength comparison: Portuguese Super League giants VS Azerbaijan powerhouse

Benfica, as a traditional top three in the Portuguese Super League, has been a regular visitor to the Champions League in the past five years. His lineup depth and European experience are significantly better than Karabach. The team has strong midfield control (average ball possession rate of over 60%), with breakthrough players such as Rafa Silva on the front line, and their oppressive style during home games is extremely threatening. In contrast, although Karabach is the super dominant Asceh, he is limited by the league level and has been in the qualifying round for a long time in the European competition. He has been eliminated in the last five Champions League group stages. He has obvious defensive loopholes in his away game against top European teams (average of 2.3 goals conceded per game).

2. Tactical game: ball control and suppress VS defensive counterattack

Benfica is expected to use a 4-3-3 formation, penetrate through crosses from the wing and middle lane to tear the defense line, and execute the set ball tactics accurately. Karabakh may adopt a 5-4-1 iron barrel formation, relying on the interception capabilities of the core defensive cores such as Dezaffuliev, and relying on the speed of Amin Aslan to create a threat in the counterattack. The key matchup lies in the competition between Benfica midfielder Vallero and Karabakh Abdul Aziz. If the former controls the rhythm, he will dominate the game trend.

3. Winning and losing hands and score deduction

Benfica's advantage:

Home atmosphere bonus (the cheering effect of the bright court is significant);

better physical reserves (the schedule of the Portuguese Super League is loose);

Historical data support (the winning rate of the Champions League qualifiers against the teams in the five major leagues in the past three years is 83%.

Karabach's chances:

defensive resilience (average of less than 1 goal conceded in the last five qualifying games);

counterattack efficiency (if Benfica presses too hard, it may expose the space).

Score prediction:

Conservative scene: Benfica 2-0 Karabach (breaking the set ball in the first half, expanding the advantage through the cross from the side in the second half);

High probability scene: Benfica 3-1 Karabach (Karabach steals 1 goal in the ball control and suppression + counterattack);

4. Conclusion

Comprehensive strength and data tendency, Benfica won at home without any suspense, the score range is 2-0 to 4-1, and the total number of goals is 3-5. Karabach needs to strictly prevent his goal conceding in the first 30 minutes, otherwise he may lose due to physical collapse.

010 [Champions League] Real Madrid vs Marseille

1. Comparison of strength and recent state

As the 14 Champions League champion, Real Madrid led the standings with 5 wins and 1 draw this season. He beat Berlin United 3-0 in the first game of the Champions League, showing terrifying offensive firepower (2.2 goals per game) and stable defense (conceded only 3 goals in the last 6 games). The blasting point on the wing consists of Bellingham (7 goals and 2 assists), Vinicius and Rodrigo, cooperates with the precise dispatch of midfielder Kroos to form a three-dimensional offensive system. In contrast, Marseille, Ligue 1 ranked 6th, losing 1-2 to Braga in the first match of the Champions League, with obvious loopholes on the defensive end (conceding 8 goals in the last 6 games), and overly relied on local breakthroughs between Yundale (average 34km/h per game) and Gigot (a 63% heading success rate).

2. Tactical style and victory and defeat hand

Real Madrid will continue to control the ball 4-3-3, creating threats through crosses and set balls (2.8 goals per game in the Champions League). Marseille needs to defend the ball with a 5-4-1 formation, use Kamara and Ontiveros' double midfield interception (4.1 per game) to cut off Real Madrid's ball, and rely on Yundale's speed to counterattack. The key game is: Can Real Madrid crack intensive defense? Can Marseille seize the weakness of Real Madrid veteran's physical strength decline (the pass success rate dropped by 10% after 70 minutes) and make a sneak attack?

3. Historical data and psychological advantages

Real Madrid's home winning rate in the last 10 times of the Champions League has reached 80%, and has maintained a record of 3 wins and 1 draw against Marseille. Marseille has played away in the past five away games in the five major leagues, with a significant psychological disadvantage. But we need to be wary of Marseille's "upset gene" - Ligue 1 reversed Paris 3-2 this season, and the counterattack efficiency should not be underestimated.

4. Score prediction and logical deduction

Comprehensive offensive and defensive efficiency and home bonus, Real Madrid is more likely to win 2-1 or 3-1:

2-1 script: Bellingham's midfield interception and Sevincius' first record, Marseille equalized through Gigot's header, Rodrigo cut in and killed the final game before the end of the game.

3-1 script: Real Madrid scored one goal in the first half, Bellingham and Vinicius each scored one goal, Marseille substitute Greenwood (7 goals in Ligue 1) scored a goal, and Guerre, who came on as a substitute, secured the victory.

If Marseille plays defensive discipline in a super normal way, there is a possibility of a 1-1 draw, but the probability is only 22%.