On the 20th anniversary of winning the World Cup, Italian football is once again trapped in the "play-off curse"?

Is Italian football trapped in the "play-off curse" again?

On that night in Berlin twenty years ago, the Italian team defeated France in a penalty shootout and won the World Cup trophy for the fourth time. Buffon, Cannavaro, Totti, Del Piero, Gattuso... these names have become the eternal legend of the Azzurri. However, when the country is about to celebrate the 20th anniversary of this glorious victory, Italian football has once again fallen into a trough: they are very likely to compete for a ticket to the World Cup through the play-offs for the third consecutive time.

Although they were placed in Group I, which included Norway, Moldova, Estonia and Israel, and were considered "top picks" on paper, the reality gave them a head-on blow - in their first game, they suffered a 0-3 away defeat to the Norwegian team led by Haaland. The defeat all but ended their hopes of direct promotion.

As the qualifiers come to an end, the Norwegian team still maintains an unbeatable record with a goal difference of +26, while Italy has won all the remaining games with a goal difference of only +10. With Haaland continuing to run wild, the huge 16-goal gap made it almost impossible for Italy to overtake.

Now, Gattuso, one of the heroes of Berlin, has transformed from a player to the coach of the national team. He is well aware of the seriousness of the situation: "The match against Norway will be a real battle, and we must show the spirit of a warrior." He said frankly in an interview, "The play-offs are a fallback route, but teams like Italy should enter the World Cup by directly qualifying so that they can step onto the field with confidence."

However, these encouraging words cannot conceal the team's current predicament. It is very likely that Italy will miss the direct qualification for the World Cup for the third consecutive time - after missing the World Cup twice in 2018 and 2022, it will once again face the test of the play-offs. For a club that has won four World Cups, this is undoubtedly an unacceptable reality.

If this scene comes true, this will be one of the darkest cycles in the history of the "Legis Azzurri". Since winning the championship in 2006, Italy has never broken through the World Cup group stage: it was eliminated from the group in 2010 and 2014, and missed the finals for two consecutive years in 2018 and 2022. Even if they win the 2020 European Cup, they cannot completely cover up the increasingly exposed structural problems of the domestic football system.

European football has evolved rapidly over the past two decades, but Italy seems to have gradually lost its way. The "concrete defense" once known as a steel defense line has now become fragile; the tactical discipline, tenacity and pressure resistance that were once proud of have gradually disappeared. Today's Italian team lacks a distinctive tactical style and spiritual leader.

As the head coach, Gattuso is trying to inject the "famiglia" (famiglia) unity and never-give-up fighting spirit into the new generation of players. He emphasized: "The most important thing now is to regain passion and belief. Technology and tactics are secondary." But the ideal is full, but the reality is very skinny.

In the current Italian team, Frattesi, Varela, Chiesa, Retegui and others are full of energy and skills, but lack stability and the "iron will"; while veterans such as Donnarumma and Jorginho are in ups and downs, and it is difficult to return to their peak. The entire team is more like a patchwork of past and present - the appearance is acceptable, but it lacks soul and hard power.

The problem is not only at the national team level. Serie A has relied more and more on foreign aid in recent years, with fewer opportunities for local players to play, and the youth training system has failed to continue to produce world-class new stars. Even the most loyal Italian fans have to admit: we are missing the "golden generation" of this era.

Now, on the 20th anniversary of winning the World Cup, the team may once again fall into the play-off quagmire. This is undoubtedly a irony. People can comfort themselves: history will always turn around, and just like in 1982 and 2006, Italy will always rise from adversity. But this time, no one can guarantee that the miracle will happen again.